HD-DVD, R.I.P.; Long Live BluRay

At the 2008 CES in Las Vegas last month, a couple of the remaining large movie studios put their support behind Sony’s BluRay technology, effectively putting the last few nails in HD-DVD’s coffin. While both were good formats, BluRay had more studio support, enabling it to win and put an end to yet another senseless format battle. Thing is, will anyone care?

BluRay has a distinct advantage over standard DVD, but it is only visible over a high definition monitor. If you have standard definition TV, then it’s not worth getting BluRay at this point. As much as I like new technologies, and as impressive as BluRay looks, I don’t see it making a huge mass-market impact at any point in the immediate future. BluRay titles are only a small premium over DVD, but the players are still a bit pricey. Plus, you need the improved HD monitor to see the clarity. Looks nice, but will your average Joe Sixpack DVD buyer care? Probably not. Standard DVDs look fine to them. Some pundits claim that the format war existed to help prolong the battle, hold off sales, and then let streaming/downloadable HD content take over from physical formats. While this is a good delivery method in my opinion, not everyone has broadband yet, so even downloadable content will take awhile to establish a foothold. Heck, they can’t even deliver uncompressed music at iTunes, Napster and other online music shops, so why would I even bother with similarly compromised video at this point?

I give BluRay a “maybe” in eventual success. It could end up being a niche product like SACD and DVD-Audio, or it could eventually succeed as more people get HD capable monitors. But until then, don’t look for any $99 BluRay players soon…unless someone offers up a cheap player just to get market penetration. BluRay players do function well as DVD players, so at least they are backward compatible. Check back with me in a year to see how it has all played out. But at least the competition is over, and BluRay can grow unimpeded.